JERUSALEM—Israel has been put on a partial war footing ahead of the imminent United States attack on Iraq. The government has called up reservists and urged people to prepare sealed rooms in the event of a chemical or biological attack by Iraq.
Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz called the instructions routine. But Israel has been preparing for months for a war in Iraq, and the government has welcomed the US ultimatum to Iraqi President Saddam Hussein. The cabinet is due to convene soon to assess further the danger to Israel in the event of a war.
Iraq fired 39 Scud missiles at Israel during the 1991 Gulf War. They caused some damage but few deaths. They were all armed with conventional warheads. Experts say that there is little likelihood of such missiles reaching Israel this time. On the other hand, if Saddam does fire weapons into Israel, they are more likely to be armed with chemical or biological warheads.
Saddam Hussein has nothing to lose now,
says Efraim Inbar, head
of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Israel’s
Bar-Ilan University. If he does manage to fire missiles at Israel
he is much less constrained than in 1991 to use chemical or biological
weapons.
But Inbar says that the chances of any Scuds reaching Israel are lower now because Israeli anti-missile defenses are much better equipped with the new Arrow anti-missile system and improved Patriot missiles. Also, Saddam is thought to have only a few Scuds left.
Washington has reassured Israel that preventing the firing of Scuds
will be a priority. The Americans will do everything to keep Israel
out of the war,
says Inbar. The US has also said that it will
expect Israel to retaliate if it is attacked. The Israeli army did not
respond in 1991. That led to an erosion of Israel’s deterrent
capacity, says Inbar. Because we did not do anything last time, it
is much more likely we would retaliate this time.
Some local reports claim that Israeli special forces are already operating in western Iraq to prevent the launch of Scuds. Reports last week that Iraq was positioning Scud missiles to hit Israel turned out to be unfounded. But Israelis are taking few chances. The tell-tale cardboard boxes containing gas masks have started to appear again. People are stocking up on water, plastic sheeting and tape to seal off rooms.
As in 1991, the greatest danger seems to be panic rather than Iraqi missiles. Three people have suffocated to death already in a sealed room. A mother and her two children sealed a room and went to sleep with a coal-fired stove on. The Israeli Home Front Command has given no instructions to people yet to move into sealed rooms.
People in the Palestinian territories are getting as worried as in Israel, but the Palestinian Authority has not issued gas masks. Israelis who effectively control most of the West Bank have not taken any steps either. Palestinians can buy gas masks but they are expensive. A pharmacy in El-Bireh near Ramallah is selling them at US$200 each. Masks are distributed free in Israel. Tourists and immigrant workers can get them for $50, of which $25 is a refundable deposit.
Palestinians are worried that Israel will take advantage of the focus of the world’s attention on Iraq to take more measures against them. Israeli and Palestinian peace activists have established a joint committee to keep an eye on the government during a war in Iraq.
The emergency committee was established in view of the fear that
the [Ariel] Sharon government will take advantage of the war on Iraq
in order to implement its long term objectives,
the group said in a
statement. The activists point out that the situation in the
Palestinian territories has deteriorated significantly in recent
weeks. This and other political groups are working to restrain the
Israeli government. The Hizbollah movement in the north is expected to
be restrained by its Syrian and Iranian patrons.
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