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Secessionist Chechnya Faces Uncertain Future

By Sergei Blagov, IPS, 5 October 1998

MOSCOW, Oct 5 (IPS) - The recent assassination attempt on Aslan Maskhadov, leader of the breakaway Russian republic of Chechnya, highlights the extremes of violence racking the Chechen lands as its factions war for political independence.

Maskhadov survived but two bodyguards perished. And, as demonstrated all too well elsewhere in the former Communist world, ordinary Chechens will be greatly affected.

Georgi Derluguian, assistant professor at Northwestern University of Chicago and expert on Chechnya, warns that Chechnya "could degenerate into a barbarous den for pirates and quite possibly, an obscure, patriarchal and clannish realm".

"Chechnya's infrastructure is now in ruins and ordinary people are in a worse position than during the war," says Chris Hunter at the Centre for Peacemaking and Community Development (CPCD), a British charity organisation based in the Chechen capital of Grozny.

Russian troops withdrew from Chechnya after an uneasy truce in Aug. 1996 following a 21-month war with Russia. Chechnya claims independence as a Republic but Moscow continues to refuse to recognise it as a separate state.

Chechnya is a Muslim enclave in the northern Caucasus, annexed by Russia in 1867 following the long Caucasus War 1817-64. After the Bolshevik revolution in 1917 traditional Chechen practices such as the pursuit of Islam were persecuted so that dreams of independence never faded in Chechen hearts.

In the wake of the collapse of Communism in the former USSR, former airforce general Dzhokhar Dudayev proclaimed Chechnya a sovereign state in Dec. 1991.

In Dec. 1994, President Yeltsin sent troops to the region after accusing Chechnya of harboring terrorists after a series of hijackings along the declared border. Tens of thousands of civilians died in the fighting that followed. Dudayev himself was killed in a rocket attack in Apr. 1996 and it was his replacement, vice-president Zelimkhan Yandarbiyev, who signed the truce with Yeltsin four months later.

"It cannot be presumed that a higher-paid army with lots of 'smart' weapons would have fared any better against the Chechen Resistance - that would be a grave mistake," maintains Derluguian.

"Small groups of guerrilla activity in sprawling towns in the increasingly urbanised world is likely to become the dominant form of combat. That leaves few advantages for a capital-intensive military," he argues.

Political analysts argue that the Soviet military debacle in Chechnya buried any hopes of restoring the former USSR to its former size.

Chechen fighters almost unwittingly rendered a major service to the project of democracy in Russia by supporting the independence of other Soviet republics and, though the pursuit of democracy remains on an uneven track in Russia, a return to a coercive militaristic regime becomes increasingly uncertain.

"Chechen people defended not only its own freedom, but freedom in Russia," says Maria Kirbasova, president of peace group, the Russian Committee of Soldiers' Mothers.

Aslan Maskhadov, viewed as a relative moderate in Moscow, commanded Chechen guerrilla forces in the 21-month war against Russia, winning presidential elections in Chechnya in Jan. 1997. He signed a formal peace accord with Yeltsin on May 12 1997 which fails to determine Chechnya's political status.

Maskhadov supports Chechen sovereignty but has said he would agree to a united economic, defense, air-space and transport agreement between Russia and Chechnya. He blames the Kremlin for contributing to instability within Chechnya by the withholding of promised reconstruction funds.

It is true that the Kremlin did offer Chechnya an economic carrot. Last September Russian and Chechen officials signed an agreement on the transit of Azerbaijani oil for export by an international oil consortium from offshore fields in the Caspian Sea via a 153 km (90 mile) pipeline across Chechnya.

However, Russia has paid virtually nothing since then and large- scale oil transport from Azerbaijani oil fields remains a long way off.

Analysts doubt whether the oil transport revenues would reach the needy in Chechnya. "Profits from oil transport will feed only those who may monopolise the receiving end of money with arms while the rest of the country remains catastrophically de- urbanised, subsistence-based and thoroughly marginalised," says Derluguian.

In the wake of the assassination attempt on Maskhadov, which he survived thanks to Chevrolet armor, President Boris Yeltsin signaled his support for Maskhadov's government by sending his then prime minister, Sergei Kiriyenko to hold talks.

During the meeting on Aug. 1 Kiriyenko focused on Chechnya's economic problems which are exacerbating unemployment and poverty. Kiriyenko offered to grant Chechnya the status of "free economic territory" similar to that of Kaliningrad, a tax-free enclave on the Baltic. But it is an offer that is unacceptable to Chechens focused on independence.

Chechnya continues to be ravaged by violence and lawlessness. Uncontrolled paramilitary groups seize hostages and demand huge ransoms.

The most notable of those kidnapped were Yeltsin's personal envoy Valentin Vlasov, who was seized on May 1, and Vincent Cochetel, head of the UNHCR mission in the North Caucasus. Just last week two British aid workers were released by Chechen rebels after 15 months in captivity.

In June and July, Maskhadov mounted a crackdown on armed criminal gangs and Muslims from the puritanical sect of Wahhabism within the Hanbali school of Islam, which he has identified as a 'criminal' group. He declared a state of emergency in June and the political climate remains tense.

On Jul. 15 armed Islamist paramilitary clashed with Maskhadov's troops in Chechnya's second largest town, Gudermes, leaving nine dead. The car bomb attack on Maskhadov, launched soon after, was viewed as retaliation by Islamic radicals following Maskhadov's crackdown.

"Wahhabis constitute a totally new form of opposition and social protest," explains Derluguian. "The post-war chaos and total lack of opportunities for young people provide good opportunities for Wahhabis' efforts at proselytising."

At the moment relations between Moscow and Grozny are in apparent stalemate. The Kremlin considers Chechnya to be a part of the Russian Federation while Maskhadov insists that Chechnya's claim of independence from Moscow remain non-negotiable.

Some political analysts do see light at the end of the proverbial tunnel.

"Due to its particular geographic position and strong socio- economic dependency on Russia Chechnya may be persuaded to re- integrate on conditions that might include formal political independence with all the usual attributes of a national army and autonomy in local politics, but without a national currency and control over economic policy," says Derluguian. (END/IPS/sb/rkp/98)

Origin: Manila/POLITICS-RUSSIA/

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