CPC Said To Expect Eventual Sino-U.S. War

By Li Tzu-ching, Hong Kong Cheng Ming, No.235, pp. 15–16, as translated in World News Review, 8 May 1997

China and the United States will eventually go to war, a limited Sino-U.S. war will break out sooner or later: These are views popular among Beijing's political and academic circles recently. Documents on the CPC's Basic Policy and Strategy Toward the United States [subhead] This reporter met a retired CPC diplomat a few days ago. When talking about the CPC's basic policy and strategy toward the United States, he said the CPC Central Committee General Office and the State Council General Office transmitted on 24 March for the study of party committees of various ministries and commissions and party committees at the army level, a report on the analysis, assessment, and study of the development and crisis of Sino-U.S. relations, made by the Central Policy Research Center, State Council's Policy Research Center, Foreign Ministry, and Defense Ministry. The report comprises two parts. Sino-U.S. Relations -- the U.S. Strategic Principle for China [subhead] The report's first part entitled Sino-U.S. Relations -- the U.S. Strategic Principle for China, is as follows. In the next 10 to 20 years, Sino-U.S. relations will be in a mixed state of tension, ditente, antagonism, cooperation, challenges, and anti-challenges, with each of them being spectacular at one time or another. Whether the Democratic or Republican Party is in power, the U.S. basic strategic principle for China makes it unlikely that Sino-U.S. relations will make substantial progress. We do not cherish any hope with regard to the formation of the U.S. policy toward China. The Taiwan issue has all along been crucial to the normal development of Sino-U.S. relations. The United States will continue to interfere with China's sovereignty and internal affairs by means of the Taiwan issue, to restrain and affect China's economic development. The United States will, through the West or the international organizations under its control, continue to carry out subversion, infiltration, and sedition against China's existing social system, to attain their objective of peaceful evolution. The United States will also adjust the West's strategy in light of the international situation and China's political and social situations. The United States will, through the West or the international organizations under its control, continue to impose economic, trade, or high-tech sanctions, restrictions, or embargoes on China to coordinate its anti-China policy and strategy. The United States will support and utilize Japan's military build-up, and mold the so-called China threat theory to restrain and challenge China's security. Being worried that the escalation and development of Sino-Russian relations will prevent it from seeking hegemony in the world, the United States will sow dissension between China and Russia and create Sino-Russian differences so as to divide and control either of them. To ensure its oil-related strategic interest in the Middle East, and to restrain and strangle the relations between Iran and Iraq on the one hand, who oppose U.S. hegemony, and China on the other, the United States will improve its relations with China in a certain period to concentrate on dealing with Iran and other Mideast countries.

The report's second part entitled China's Anti-U.S. Basic Principle and Strategy reads as follows. It Is Impossible for China and the United States To Establish a Friendly and Cooperative Partnership [subhead] It is necessary to uphold the foundation for the three Sino-U.S. joint communiquis in developing Sino-U.S. relations. But the three joint communiquis have been trampled underfoot by the United States. China does not place any hope on the United States honoring the three joint communiquis. Hindered by the U.S. anti-China strategy, it is impossible for the two countries to forge friendly and cooperative partnership. China's omni-directional foreign policy of peace also makes it inappropriate to establish cooperative partnership with the United States. China does not come into conflict of interest with the United States in the international field. China will never make concession or allow foreign interference and challenges on the matters related to sovereignty and internal affairs, for establishing relations with the United States. This is a matter concerning the major principle of maintaining the state's dignity and stability.

A Limited Sino-U.S. War Is Possible [subhead] With the return of Hong Kong and Macao to Chinese rule, the Taiwan issue will inevitably become China's major event around 2110. If the United States uses force to meddle in China's sovereignty and internal affairs, China will certainly fight a war against aggression, thus leading to a limited Sino-U.S. war. China must be prepared for this. With the change in the international situation, the United States will, making use of islands, maritime space, and resources, encourage and support Japanese militarists in provoking a war against China. China believes it is impossible for China and the United States to establish a cooperative partnership. But China hopes to maintain normal state-to-state relations with the United States. Neither of the two countries depends upon the other for survival. China is the U.S. number one political adversary at the turn of this century. China must make systematic preparations against the invasive war and military attacks unleashed by the United States under any pretext.

A scholar in Beijing, who is studying international issues and has held a senior post,has made the following comment: The CPC's so-called global strategy mainly comprises three parts: First, taking the United States as its number one enemy; second, allying China with Russia to oppose the United States; and third, China's decision to wage war with the United States when the Sino-U.S. contradiction sharpens over the Taiwan issue. He added: Given the present conditions, probably Jiang Zemin will not use force. But judged from his hegemonic thinking and his fancy to cultivate his authority at home, he will possibly fight a limited war at the cost of people's lives and other losses when conditions are ripe.