African Americans Defy Trend of Plunging Voter Turnout, Census Bureau Reports

U.S. Census Bureau, release CB00-114, Wednesday 19 July 2000

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Avalaura Gaither
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African Americans were the only race or ethnic group to defy the trend of declining voter participation in congressional elections, increasing their presence at the polls from 37 percent in 1994 to 40 percent in 1998, according to a report released today by the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau.

Nationwide, overall turnout by the voting-age population was down from 45 percent in 1994 to 42 percent in 1998—about 3 million fewer voters in 1998 than in 1994.

The increase in voter participation by African Americans was most notable in the South, where the rate grew by 4 percentage points to 39 percent, said Avalaura Gaither, co-author of Voting and Registration in the Election of November 1998, P20-523. About 40 percent of the 9 million African American voters lived in the South.

Turnout by Whites declined from 50 percent to 47 percent from 1994 to 1998, while Asian and Pacific Islander turnout fell from 22 percent to 19 percent and Hispanic turnout remained at 20 percent. (The turnout rates for each of the latter two groups would increase by nearly 13 percentage points if estimated noncitizens were subtracted from the voting-age universe. Data by race in this release exclude people of Hispanic origin, who may be of any race.)

Turnout also declined across all age groups and for men and women. For example, 35 percent of 25- to 44-year-olds cast ballots in 1998, down from 39 percent in 1994.

Other highlights of the report:

Reasons for Not Voting

• Of the 40 million people who said they registered but did not vote in the 1998 election, about one-third reported they were too busy or had conflicting work or school schedules. Another 13 percent were not interested or felt their vote would not make a difference.

Voter Turnout

• The West and Midwest states recorded the highest voting rates in 1998, led by Minnesota (66 percent), while the South had the lowest (Virginia was at 31 percent).
• Among voting-age citizens, the lowest voting rates by age were for 18- to 24-year-olds, where a ratio of slightly less than 1 in 5 voted. The age group with the highest voting participation was 55- to 74-year-olds; more than 3 in 5 in this age group cast ballots.
• Women (46 percent) were slightly more likely than men (45 percent) to vote in 1998, continuing a trend that started in 1986.
• About 5 in 10 homeowners said they voted, compared with 3 out of 10 renters. About one-half of those living in families who voted had family incomes of more than $50,000.
• In 1998, voting-age citizens who had bachelor’s degrees were nearly twice as likely (6 in 10) to have voted as those who had not completed high school (3 in 10).

Voter Registration

• Voter registration between 1994 and 1998 increased for African Americans (from 59 percent to 61 percent) and Hispanics (from 31 percent to 34 percent). The rates for Whites (68 percent) and Asians and Pacific Islanders (29 percent) were the same in both elections.
• Of the 198 million people of voting age in 1998, 62 percent said they were registered to vote. This is not significantly different from the percentage registered in the 1994 and 1990 congressional elections.
• More than two-thirds of citizens in the Midwest were registered to vote. North Dakota (91 percent) and Minnesota (83 percent) had the highest registration rates, while many of the states with lower rates were in the West (Nevada had 52 percent).
• The percentage of 18- to 24-year-olds who were registered to vote declined from 42 percent in 1994 to 39 percent in 1998. There was no significant change for people ages 25 to 44 years.

The data were collected in the November 1998 Current Population Survey (CPS) two weeks after the election. As in all surveys, data are subject to sampling variability and other sources of error. The CPS routinely overestimates voter turnout. Possible reasons include understatement of the votes cast; overreporting by survey respondents who want to demonstrate their civic responsibility; misreporting of voting because of refusals or lack of knowledge on the part of proxy respondents; and survey undercoverage.