"One sided arms embargo was a cover to assist RPF. It enabled RPF to send millions of Hutus into exile and kill thousands through diseases," says Hutu leadership.
Next round of genocide may cost 2,000,000 deaths Hutus and Tutsis.
More than four million Hutus fled Rwanda into exile to avoid being massacred by RPF. Thirty thousand have so far died from cholera. Main stream Hutus may be planning the next round of war which might provoke Tutsis, now controlling the army, to massacre Hutus in their millions.
The world is puzzled as to why a minority of Tutsis was instigated by the international community to impose itself on the majority, Hutus.
One version has it that for the last five years the big powers believed Muslim fundamentalism was poised to infiltrate sub-Saharan Africa, but it had to be prevented by installing in power leaders who are totally against the spread of Muslim fundamentalism.
According to sources the Sudan is one sure conduit through which Muslim fundamentalism could penetrate down south. The US Government in 1993 issued a strongly worded condemnation of the Sudan Govt saying it was giving facilities to terrorists and Muslim fundamentalists.
Thus, the US would be very happy to keep the Sudanese Govt fully busy fighting the SPLA thereby denying Muslim fundamentalism easy flow southwards. But the SPLA needs support and bases to operate from.
The Sudanese Govt has on several occasions accused Uganda and Kenya of supporting the SPLA. Both Uganda and Kenya have denied these accusations.
However, news sources have it that super powers would close their eyes to military supplies reaching both the SPLA and the RPF. Thus, the SPLA kept the Sudan busy, while the RPF got assistance to fight its war without interruption. It also got military supplies without interruption.
It was a question of scratching each others backs. Let the SPLA get its military assistance without interruption, we also let the RPF get its military assitance without interruption.
The massacres in Rwanda in April 1994 were a result of the assassination of President Juvenal Habyarimana. The assassination was the ignition of the massacres. The nearly 300,000 massacred were mainly Tutsis. But the extent of the massacres has infuriated the world to the extent that Hutu leadership is now an international outcast.
President Clinton of the US announced that he was not ready to deal with a leadership that authorized its army to massacre hundreds of thousands of its citizens.
The same view was held by Britain, France, etc. It is these powers which were in a position to stop the RPF but instead they engineered an arms embargo in the UN Security Council in April to deny the Hutu-led Govt weapons.
The super powers were in dilemma as to whether the embargo should be applied to both belligerents. However, the arms embargo was applied to only the Hutu-led Govt. This one-sided application effectively allowed the RPF to continue receiving its military supplies while the Hutu-led Rwandese Government lost all supplies even those it had already paid for.
Maintaining the arms embargo on Hutus effectively tilted the war in favour of RPF. And the Tutsi-led RPF used this opportunity very effectively. They made use of the long range artillery which caused such psychological havoc that the RPF acquired the whole country without heavy person to person contact. The Hutu-led Rwanda Govt army simply deserted areas wich the RPF were shelling from a distance of ten miles or beyond.
And when the UN Security Council passed resolution 929 of June 22 1994 authorising the French army to intervene to protect civilian lives it was worded in such a way that the Hutus believed it was meant to effect a cease fire so that the belligerent parties would stop fighting and go to the negociation table.
The Hutus believed the French had gone to stop the RPF from shooting at them. But the opposite turned out to be the reality. The French merely watched as the RPF intensified its military advance shelling Hutu-held areas even more viciously.
It is under such devastating shelling that the Hutu population of over four million fled into exile rather than wait for the RPF to massacre them.
The spokesmen of the super powers in Kampala said the Hutus should not have fled. They should have remained in the country. But reality shows that its a fool who remains in the path of the RPF army.
The over 40,000 dead bodies witch reached Uganda River Kagera originated from RPF held area. And the execution of innocent Archbishop and three Bishops in Kigali June 3, were not re-assuring to most Hutus. Thus, it is naive of the super powers to say Hutu civilians shuld not have fled when facing RPF shelling.
The Hutus accuse the UN of siding with the RPF. In 1993 the UN stationed military team of 50 men to monitor the border between Uganda and Rwanda. It was intended to make sure the RPF does not get military supplies from anywhere. The Hutu Govt alerted the UN Security Council that the UNAMIR force is ineffective because it was not allowed to patrol the area independently. It had to first get permission and first alert the NRA three days in advance.
The Hutu said this arrangement allowed the RPF to bring in men and equipment without interruption, but the Security Council ignored the report.
Such occurence made the Hutus believe the UN was biased against them from october 1, 1990 when the RPF invaded Rwanda. Hutus then got prepared to defend themselves. So, when the Hutus fled in June in their millions they went with such bitterness at heart that it is impossible for them to reconcile to the humiliation they suffered under the minority Tutsis.
On the other hand the Tutsis are so arrogant by nature that since 1959 when they were toppled from power they resolved never to accept to be ruled by their former slaves. Thus the Tutsis as soon as they went into exile they began regrouping and launching military incursions.
This above scenario, this time with the Hutus playing the role of rebels is set to be repeated.
The only difference is that whereas in the case of Tutsis, this time the Hutus do not have the support of the international community. Hutus are seen as monsters who allowed their army to massacre a million people.
However, here the international community may be accused of showing double standards. The Tutsi-led RPF has sent four million people into exile which has resulted into so far 30,000 deaths, a precedent that is its own record, and yet the international community is showing no signs of blaming the Tutsis for effecting this nation-wide exodus.
The scenario for massacring over two million Rwandese in future will follow the following procedure:
In the RPF cabinet which was sworn in July 19, the most powerful man is Tutsi, Major Paul Kagame who is also the minister of defence. He is the overall commander of the armed forces and the architect of the RPF victory. He is fully aware that Hutus will plan a come-back. His assignment is to make sure there is no more Hutu successful military come-back.
Thus, he will do everything possible to make sure the Hutus do not have a chance for a successful military operation. To achieve this end he will give military training to Tutsi youths from a very early age. The adults will be recruited into the army and they will be armed to teeth.
On the other hand the Hutus will also give military training to their youths in preparation for a show down. The Hutus are today in exile and they will use the opportunity to acquire military knowledge.
The super powers may want to frustrate exiled Hutus from acquiring military knowledge, but it will not succeed. This is because what the Tutsi have acquired is of immense dimension to the extent that Rwanda's neighbours are uneasy about the determination of the Tutsis. In 1986 they toppled Milton Obote/Tito Okello Government and now they have toppled an established government in Rwanda. The question is, what is their next destination.
This means, the Hutus will not be short of neighbouring countries to assist them. Some leaders are already saying that Tutsi must be stopped before they strike elsewhere.
Thus, the Hutus will also get military assistance. This will mean two bitter armies will be facing each other inside Rwanda. The slightest excuse will be used to ignite the time bomb.
And when the ignition is done, the two well armed armies will slaughter each other mercilessly to the extent that April 1994 will be a child's play.
Some Hutu extremists have said the next round of the war will claim not less than two million people both Hutus and Tutsis.
Considering the preparations for the massacres many observers are wondering how the UN, or the super powers with their sophisticated intelligence system, fail to anticipate the massacres that took place. And why couldn't the international community act to stop it?
The same question might be asked today. The stage is being set for the next, more vicious massacres of both Hutus and Tutsis, why is not the international community taking steps to nip it in the bud?
In an effort to stop the next round of massacres several facts must be taken into account.
Fact One: The Hutus are the majority and the Tutsi are the minority. In democracies, it is the majorities which rule.
Fact two: Tutsis persecuted the Hutus from time immemorial so that in 1959 Hutus revolted and overthrew the Tutsis. To reverse the achievements of these revolts will be like putting square peg into a round hole.
Fact three: Tutsis are by nature arrogant to the extent that they are abhorred by Hutus. They must be educated to throw away their arrogance. They must accept to be ruled democratically.
Fact four: RPF victory was based on outside assistance. The moment that support disappears, the Tutsi will not have military might.