ZANZIBAR, 11 October (IRIN) - The magical isles of Zanzibar, off the coast of Tanzania, are likely to be the focus for violence in the run-up - and possibly the aftermath - of presidential and parliamentary elections, set for 29 October 2000.
While elections are taking place all over Tanzania, it is only in Zanzibar, and not in the mainland, that the opposition Civic United Front (CUF), stands a real chance of gaining power by winning the presidential race or the parliamentary poll. The ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party is doing all it can to resist that prospect.
Five years ago, international electoral observers said that the first multi-party polls in Zanzibar were rigged in favour of CCM. As a result, donors withdrew their aid to put pressure on the Zanzibari authorities. But the prospects for a free and fair election still look remote.
Much of the opportunity for rigging lies in the very complexity of the poll in Zanzibar. Each person will have a maximum of five votes, because they will be casting a ballot in the Union elections for a Union presidential candidate and parliamentary representative, as well as a Zanzibari president, parliament and local government. The poll comes under the responsibility of two electoral commissions and is governed by two sets of electoral laws. During the registration period, both the governing CCM and the CUF accused each other of bringing in people from the mainland to register. In the end there were higher-than-anticipated registration figures on Unguja island, reckoned to be supportive to CCM, and lower than estimated figures on Pemba island to the north, where the bulk of CUF's support comes from. CUF claims that at least 3,000 of its supporters have been deliberately dropped from the voters' lists.
Even before the process began, in the last session of the Zanzibar House of Representatives, some constituency boundaries were altered.
Most worrying, according to diplomatic observers, is the government's refusal to reform the Zanzibar Electoral Commission, despite a Commonwealth-brokered agreement between the parties. The Organisation of African Unity, the Commonwealth and local election-monitoring group will send observers to the islands. Sam Ibok, the leader of the OAU monitoring delegation, gave this warning to the press after visiting Zanzibar: "[There is a] very high potential for violence in Zanzibar, grave concern about the role of the security forces and harassment of the opposition."
Zanzibar politics centre on the events of the Revolution of 1964. It was a bloody overthrow of the Arab Sultan, and the identification of a young African elite with nationalist politics. Shortly afterwards Zanzibar joined then Tanganyika - the mainland - in the heady days of African nationalism. The terms of the Union have never been fully laid out. Much of the difference between the two main parties concerns their attitudes to the issue of Union with the mainland. The Zanzibari community is deeply divided. Bars, football teams, businesses are all perceived as either CUF or CCM supporters. Little room is left for neutrality. Racial and religious stereotyping also play a role, with one pro-CCM newspaper, 'Jukwaa', using cartoons of men with beards and Muslim hats to represent the opposition. CUF has used inflammatory language to support its campaign. Its leaders coined the phrase "jino kwa jino" meaning "a tooth for a tooth", which became a favourite rallying cry, suggesting the prospect of bloody clashes. Later this was been replaced by "ngangari", meaning "steadfast".
The OAU has condemned the way both parties have used language to "prepare people for war". The role of the security forces, police and army, is the responsibility of the Union Government. Observers point out that during the last five years, the police force on the islands has acted in a partisan manner: more than once they have disrupted CUF manifestations. No official figures are available, but extra security forces have been deployed in advance of the elections.
Armoured Personnel Carriers have been publicly paraded in known CUF areas, giving the opposition little expectation of the even-handedness of the security forces.
The presidential contest in Zanzibar is between Seif Shariff Hamad of CUF, and CCM's Amani Karume, son of the first president of the islands. Hamad is from the island of Pemba, and a former chief minister of Zanzibar, under CCM, before going on to establish his own party with the introduction of multi-party democracy. Karume is a former minister, but has not been a significant force in Zanzibari politics. If he succeeds, he would replace the current president, Salmin Amour, who was prevented constitutionally from running for a third term. Karume is presented to the international community as the bridge builder who could work on the necessary reconciliation within Zanzibari society. But his campaign is being organised by Ambassador Hassan Diria, a former minister of foreign affairs and a known hard-liner. Earlier this month Diria told a press conference that there is "currently no basis for reconciliation or dialogue with the opposition in Zanzibar". Karume could be left with limited room for reforms after the poll.
CCM does not seem to be ready to give up Zanzibar to the opposition.
The concept of a CUF government in the islands having to "cohabit" with the CCM Union government is inconceivable in the eyes of the ruling party leadership. Analysts say the outcome of the elections therefore seems almost a foregone conclusion. Following the electoral defeat in 1995, CUF found it difficult to control its supporters.
Three years ago 18 CUF members were arrested on charges of treason, and despite continued protests from human rights groups and the international community, their trial has failed to proceed. Mediation by the Commonwealth failed to get CCM to agree to reforms. A further disputed election could lead to the radicalisation of the opposition.
The reaction of the donor community is difficult to predict. The European Union and others took a hard line, cutting off aid in the aftermath of the fraudulent 1995 elections. But there are those who advocate the resumption of assistance to alleviate the poverty of ordinary Zanzibaris. Certainly, the economy based on the traditional clove harvest has nose-dived in the past five years, and although revenue from tourism has been increasing, the majority of Zanzibaris have not benefited.
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