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Zanzibar On the Brink of Another Political Deadlock

By Anaclet Rwegayura, Panafrican News Agency, 31 October 2000

Dar es Salaam, Tanzania - Multiparty politics in Zanzibar began unspectacularly and has managed to keep the east African Indian Ocean offshore islands in tension.

Now, in the midst of their second plural election, the Zanzibaris find themselves stagnated, unable to go forward. The eventual outcome is rather unpredictable, at least for the time being.

Sunday's national election for Tanzania's Union government and the government of Zanzibar has turned out to be controversial among the islanders while their compatriots on the mainland had it free from jolts.

Onlookers wonder why elections in Zanzibar should all the time be a source of friction instead of building up national cohesion.

A team of election observers sent by the Commonwealth secretary-general Don McKinnon has described Sunday's polls in Zanzibar as a "shambles and contemptible" to the less than one million population of the island.

The statement made by team leader Gaositwe Chieope from Botswana was not sweet music to the ears of those who wield power in Zanzibar, especially the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party.

The CCM leadership, has instead, shifted the blame for the botch-up in the polls on its main rival, the Civic United Front (CUF), which has also cried foul.

CUF Secretary-general and Zanzibar's presidential candidate, Seif Shariff Hamad was very disappointed by what he called the ineptitude shown by the island's electoral commission in managing the exercise.

But the call for a provisional government and re-election in Zanzibar has fallen by the wayside.

According to Seif, the mandate of the CCM government expired 26 October when the cabinet was officially dissolved.

What angers opposition the more in Zanzibar is seeing the second national election in five years messed up.

Dispute over the 1995 presidential and House of Representatives election had put the island in a trying situation until this week's polls.

The government of outgoing President Salmin Amour had to fight off economic woes to survive after donors withheld development aid to Zanzibar in a bid to press for reconciliation between the CCM government and the CUF leadership.

A memorandum of understanding, brokered by the Commonwealth to end the stand-off between CCM and CUF on the eve of the 2000 election, is now in tatters.

After the Zanzibar Electoral Commission announced Monday that it was arranging a re-run of the botched polls 5 November in 16 of the island's 50 constituencies, CUF's campaign manager Awadh Ali Said made it clear that his party would not take part in the race.

The commission's chair, Abdul Jumbe Mwinyi, said there was no reason for holding fresh elections throughout Zanzibar because irregularities of Sunday were detected in Mjini Magharibi Region only.

Meanwhile, ballot boxes in unaffected constituencies have been collected from voting stations and taken to offices of respective district commissioners for safekeeping on the orders of the electoral commission.

The boxes were moved before supervisors and representatives of different parties in the contest counted the ballot papers.

The commission said the count would be taken after the scheduled re-run in Mjini Magharibi.

No matter when the ballots are counted, CUF leaders have categorically stated that they would not recognise the results. They took a similar stand in 1995 when they claimed that CCM had rigged the presidential votes.

As mistrust between both parties mounts, public tension also escalates with the potential of leading to greater violence that could dwarf clashes in Zanzibar town between riot police and youthful CUF supporters.

According to some analysts, it may be only a matter of time before the rest of the island follows suit.

Zanzibar's politics, like the spices on which the island's economy depended since the 7th century when Persians and Arabs from Oman settled it, is always intriguing.

After being under one-party rule since independence from colonial rule, about 40 years ago, Tanzanians in general cannot imagine the newly formed "opposition" parties and CCM alternating in power.

CCM remains the dominant force in the country, and even when critics believe that it is floundering in certain spheres, ousting the party from power has proved difficult.

Meantime, without completion of the election process in Zanzibar, results of the presidential vote on the mainland will not be announced until next week.

In addition to voting for their own president and members of the House of Representatives, Zanzibaris had to cast votes for the Union president, members of the Union parliament and the island's local authorities.

Persistent election irregularities in Zanzibar show that the islanders have a long way to go toward organised democratic development.

Whether CCM is using such tactics to consolidate its power, as claimed by CUF, or not, the Zanzibaris may find themselves paying a huge price for "tactical" errors in elections.

The flaws in the current election have driven the CCM government and the CUF even further apart.

It would probably take several other polls for the CUF or any other opposition party for that matter to control the levers of government.

Analyst, however, counsel the incumbent government to apply wisdom to ensure that the islands of Zanzibar and Pemba do not descend into a more serious conflict.

The prospects for agreement between CCM and CUF, its main rival in Tanzania as results of this election are showing, are looking bleak in Zanzibar.

Both parties need to speak in a spirit of constructive compromise to avoid another five-year stalemate.

Meanwhile, the Commonwealth election observer group says it is making an in-depth study of the political situation in the islands, and will report to the Commonwealth secretariat and member States.