Nigeria's presidential elections: social breakdown and the oil industry are the central issues of the democratic transition

By Jackie DeLorme, ICFTU OnLine..., 042/990226/JD, 26 February 1999

The democratisation process in Nigeria enters a crucial phase this Saturday as the country goes to the polls for the presidential elections. But there is a lot more at stake than tomorrow's vote.

Brussels, February 26 1999 (ICFTU OnLine): How do you break a vicious cycle of corruption and violence? How do you govern a country said to be ungovernable? How do you ensure the fair distribution of a country's wealth between the different provinces and components of society and invest in infrastructure, while ensuring the federal State has sufficient means? Beyond the outcome of Saturday's vote, these are the questions that are at the heart of Nigeria's political debate, now that it appears that General Abubakar's democratisation programme is genuine, not just another ploy by the army.

On the one hand, the electoral timetable, albeit rather heavy (four ballots) has been respected and should conclude at the end of May with the installation of a civilian government, only the third since independence in 1963. The two candidates to head this government are the general and former Head of State Olusegun Obasanjo, and the former Finance Minister, Olu Falae. The first led the country from 1976 to 1979, when he handed power back to the civilians, a precedent for Nigeria. The second may benefit from the opposition of many Nigerians to being ruled by an army officer once again, even a retired one. Olusegun Obasanjo, the Democratic People's Party candidate and leader in the polls over the last few weeks is seen as the favourite, but in Nigeria there are many other factors that come into play, not least ethnic rivalries.

On the other, there has been a genuine move towards democracy since the death last June of General Abacha. Within just a few days his successor, General Abubakar, made a gesture towards the opposition and the international community by releasing nine prisoners of conscience. Among them were Frank Kokori and Milton Dabibi, two trade union leaders unfairly arrested and held in very harsh conditions since 1994. Since there, there has been progress in trade union rights, with the removal of the administrators appointed by the dictatorship to run the trade unions and the return of an independent executive board at the Nigerian Labour Congress, the national trade union centre.

But trade unionists and all democrats gradually enjoying new found freedom of action are acutely aware of the difficult task ahead, in a country that has been bled dry. By dipping liberally into Nigeria's oil income to enhance their personal wealth, the generals and their cronies are largely responsible for a terrible paradox: the world's sixth largest oil producer is also one of the poorest countries in the world. The oil boom of the seventies had little lasting impact, the economy was not diversified and remained focused on the production of hydrocarbons which represent over 90 per cent of State income.

Civilians are poised to retake control of the country at a time of plummeting oil prices. With a downward revision of income in 1999 and a debt estimated at between 34 and 40 billion dollars, there is little margin for manoeuvre, as can be seen from the u-turn by the present government, and the social discontent over pay rises in the public service (promised then forgotten, and currently under negotiation) and the liberalisation of the price of petroleum products (127 per cent rise before being suspended). In both cases, the trade unions have wrung a few victories from the government, but above all they have shown their determination to participate in the real political debate on essential economic reforms. Beginning, naturally, with the oil sector.

The pillaging of oil reserves by the government ‰lite at all levels of the federal State takes several forms. There is the systematic embezzlement of the funds granted to the population of the producer regions, and there is also trafficking of all kinds linked to the shortage of petroleum products for domestic consumption, caused by the lack of properly maintained refineries. The IMF's decision to link its assistance (the rescheduling of the debt and financial assistance to compensate for the losses incurred from the fall in the price of crude oil) to an audit of the sector is therefore to be welcomed, giving rise to hopes the industry will be cleaned up. There is concern however as to how the corrupt, extremely rich and influential ‰lite will react to losing their wealth and being the target of blame. Recent police attacks on the independent press in Lagos, denounced by the International Federation of Journalists, have only added to those concerns.

The Nigerian oil industry needs a social audit even more than a financial one. And the multinationals have a lot to answer for over the violations of human rights in the drilling regions, as shown once again in a detailed report published this week by Human Rights Watch. The major oil companies Royal Dutch Shell, Chevron, Mobil, Elf and Agip all have joint ventures with the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) and the desire to maximise profits can make them blind, even complicit, to what it going on.

For years the communities along the Niger delta have tried to get their voice heard: they are demanding a fair share of oil income taking into account the despoilment of their region and the environmental damage caused by the drilling. While certain isolated incidents (the sabotage of industrial plant, taking of hostages) justify security measures, the great majority of protest action has been peaceful. Yet these communities are often the victims of harsh repression by the special police forces which on several occasions have not hesitated to open fire on demonstrators, killing men, women and children. In some cases, these excesses have taken place after oil companies have called in the security forces to intervene. In one specific incident, Chevron sent in a helicopter and small boats to help the police sow terror in two small villages, killing several people and burning everything in sight.